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东亚-西北太平洋夏季风模拟的参数优化研究

批准号41575105 学科分类数值模式与数值模拟 ( D0510 )
项目负责人邹立维 负责人职称副研究员 依托单位中国科学院大气物理研究所
资助金额70.00
万元
项目类别面上项目 研究期限2016 年 01 月 01 日 至
2019 年 12 月 31 日
中文主题词区域气候模式;东亚-西北太平洋夏季风;参数扰动;海气相互作用
英文主题词regional climate model;East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon;parameter perturbing;air-sea interactions

摘要

中文摘要 量化和减少气候模式模拟的不确定性是当今国际气候模拟的热点问题之一。现今的气候模式无法显式地分辨诸如积云对流等次网格尺度过程,仍然存在许多需要参数化的物理过程。参数化方案中的一些参数涉及无法观测的中间物理过程,它们的确定通常基于经验或者一些有限的观测证据,因此存在相当大的不确定性。基于CMIP5模拟结果的研究显示,东亚-西北太平洋夏季风的模拟对于当前气候模式而言仍然具有相当难度。本项目将以东亚-西北太平洋夏季风为关注点,利用快速收敛到最优参数的高效采样方法,扰动模式中对流过程、云过程等的关键不确定参数,针对单独大气模式和海气耦合模式分别进行数值模拟试验,考察影响东亚-西北太平洋夏季风模拟的关键物理过程,考察海气耦合过程对物理过程参数敏感性的影响,探讨海气耦合过程影响关键参数和关键物理过程的机理,系统评估最优参数集对长期季风模拟和未来预估的影响。
英文摘要 Quantifying and reducing the uncertainties in climate models is a field important to the climate modeling community. Typical climate models with horizontal resolution of 100-200 km are not well resolve the sub-grid processes such as cloud process and cumulus convection, so parameterization schemes are usually employed. Parameterization schemes in climate models typically contain many tunable input parameters that are determined based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations, which result in large uncertainties in climate simulations. Recent studies based on CMIP5 results show that the simulation of East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon remains a challenging problem for current climate models. In this project, we will apply an uncertainty quantification technique to both stand-alone atmospheric model and air-sea coupled model with focus on East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon. The sensitivity of East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon to several key uncertain parameters in cloud and cumulus convection parameterization schemes will be examined by using a stochastic importance-sampling algorithm that can progressively converge to optimal parameter values. This project will investigate the key physical processes that affect the simulation of East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon, and in particular the impacts of air-sea interactions on the sensitivity of simulated East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon to the uncertain parameters in cloud and cumulus convection schemes. Finally, the impacts of identified optimal parameters on the simulation and projection of East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon will be thoroughly evaluated.
结题摘要

成果

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