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华东极端气候的演变机制及预估研究

批准号41571044 学科分类应用气候学 ( D010102 )
项目负责人史军 负责人职称高级工程师 依托单位上海市气象局
资助金额67.00
万元
项目类别面上项目 研究期限2016 年 01 月 01 日 至
2019 年 12 月 31 日
中文主题词极端气候;演变机制;气象灾害;预估;华东地区
英文主题词climatic extreme;evolution mechanism ;meteorological disaster;projection;East China

摘要

中文摘要 本项目借助于气候统计诊断技术、气候数值模式技术、遥感和地理信息系统技术以及数理统计方法等,对我国华东极端气候演变特征、城市化影响机制和未来变化开展如下研究:.(1)选取典型极端气温和降水指数,并结合各地气象灾情普查数据,生成我国华东极端气温、降水和综合极端气候指数序列,分析华东历史极端气候的时空变化及综合极端气候指数与单项极端气温、降水指数的联系;.(2)基于站点观测资料、多期卫星遥感反演的LST数据、夜灯数据和TRMM降水资料,分析城市化对极端气候的时空影响规律,并在多期精细化下垫面数据的支持下,应用WRF/UCM模式模拟极端气候的变化过程,明确土地利用变化对极端气候的影响机制;.(3)利用IPCC典型浓度路径情景下多模式预估结果,经过模式模拟能力的评估并考虑城市化气候效应,采用统计降尺度和贝叶斯模型平均方法,集合预估华东地区极端气温、降水和综合极端气候事件的变化趋势及空间差异性。
英文摘要 The evolution characteristics of climatic extremes and their influencing mechanisms of urbanization and projections in the 21st century will be studied in this project using the methods of climate statistics and diagnosis, numerical climate model, remote sensing, geographic information system and mathematic statistics in East China. The main works are as follows:.(1) By selecting typical extreme temperature and precipitation index, combined with meteorological disasters data, the series of extreme temperature and precipitation index also with comprehensive extreme climate index in East China will be generated. Based on the results, we will analyze the temporal and spatial variation of climatic extremes along with the relationship between the comprehensive extreme climate index and single extreme temperature and precipitation index in the past 50 years. .(2) With the ground site observations, multiphase MODIS LST data, DMSP/OLS night light data and TRMM precipitation data from satellite remote sensing, the temporal and spatial influencing characteristics of urbanization on climatic extremes will be analyzed. By using WRF/UCM model to simulate the change process of climatic extremes, the influencing mechanisms of regional urbanization and land use change on climatic extremes will be studied in East China. .(3) Based on the data under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenario from IPCC, taking full account of effects of urbanization on climate and the assessment abilities of the IPCC models, the trends and spatial differences of the extreme temperature and precipitation and comprehensive climatic extremes will be projected using the ensemble methods of statistical downscaling techniques and Bayesian model averaging method.
结题摘要

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